Thursday, August 10, 2017

Is Nifty starting a bigger degree downtrend or is it still buy on dips?

Nifty showed a sharp move on downside from the highs of 10086 made last Friday. After many weeks there was a correction of nearly 100 points that too amidst all the optimism!
 So does it mean we are reversing? No, it is too soon to conclude this unless important support levels are taken out. But as we keep mentioning in our daily equity research reports it is time to stay alert and not complacent which has paid well so far.
Infact, many of the subscribers already knew about the triangle pattern even before it started to form which helped them to buy near supports and sell near resistance levels. But now we should start seeing a trending move soon.
You can also look at the concept of range bound trading strategy I discussed in my last Friday’s video – How to trade Nifty?
Now look at the below hourly chart of Nifty: (shown in morning research before markets opened)

Happened:

Following was mentioned on 9th August before markets opened in our daily equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update

In short, looking at the faster retracement of last rising segment, break below Bollinger bands support and weakness in broader markets the chances are high of a trending move on downside. Nevertheless, just one day of move is too soon to conclude anything and so move below yesterdays low near 9950 will further confirm negative outlook. We will stick with existing wave counts as long as 10085 is protected on upside. …… But so far prices have behaved exactly as expected and let see if selling pressure can start building up from here which will catch majority by a surprise! BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved precisely as expected and majority are still guessing what is leading this selloff. Prices have moved more than 150 points since we warned and 100 points post the support zone was broken.

So what is next from here? I do not see it buy on dips market but it is rather sell on rallies. Majority are stuck exactly at the wrong levels and selloff has been strong across the board. Avoid catching a low in this market.

“The Financial Waves short term update” is our flagship product that will provide important support and resistance levels, trading methods and charts on Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks where there is opportunity. To Subscribe visit Pricing Page

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Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Is Nifty arrived at crucial juncture? How to trade using simple technical analysis?

Nifty showed a sharp move on downside from the highs of 10086 made last Friday. After many weeks there was a correction of nearly 100 points that too amidst all the optimism!

 So does it mean we are reversing? No, it is too soon to conclude this unless important support levels are taken out. But as we keep mentioning in our daily equity research reports it is time to stay alert and not complacent which has paid well so far.

Infact, many of the subscribers already knew about the triangle pattern even before it started to form which helped them to buy near supports and sell near resistance levels. But now we should start seeing a trending move soon.

You can also look at the concept of range bound trading strategy I discussed in my last Friday’s video – How to trade Nifty?

Now look at the below hourly chart of Nifty: (shown in morning research before markets opened)

We showed a probable triangle pattern which might be completing. So the closing of next two days become crucial to confirm the above wave counts. A few of the counts are purposely deleted as they are meant for paid subscribers. But nevertheless, if you use simple technique like Bollinger Bands and Channels you will know the bias as of now.

Nifty has now taken out the low marked as wave d and the next support is now at the low of wave b. If this level is also taken out decisively we might be headed for a reversal. So it is time to keep a close watch on crucial levels and the Elliott wave counts as it develop. Faster retracement of last rising segment is one of the most basic techniques in Neo wave that helps us to understand and catch a reversal early on!

“The Financial Waves short term update” is a daily research report published before market opens and it shows very detailed objective method for capturing the trend on Nifty, Bank Nifty and stocks on periodical basis. In today’s session, at one point of time Nifty gave more than 100 points of down move despite of all euphoria. It is time to be objective and alert! For subscription to this research simply visit Pricing Page.

In case you would like to receive Intraday / Positional stock tips based on above systematic approach to markets you can register for our daily advisory calls and get access to exact levels to enter with stoploss, targets and follow-up until the calls are closed. You will receive these calls via sms, Yahoo messenger, whats app. For any other details Contact US

Wednesday, August 2, 2017

How to trade Nifty post RBI policy announcement and rate cut?

RBI finally changed its status quo and cut repo rates by 25 bps. This time Mr. Patel has managed to be predictable.

It is interesting to see closing of Nifty post the monetary policy announcement. Prices traded in a narrow range for most part of the day until it finally gave away during the final 30 minutes.
The reason prices have been struggling at the current zone is due to the series of channel resistance all in the near zone.

Look at the below chart of Nifty which shows why prices have been failing at higher levels even though the overall tone is still bullish…

Nifty 60 minutes chart:

News or events do not drive the markets but only results into short term volatility or random movement which will last for few minutes to few hours or few days and then the original trend resumes.

The above chart clearly shows that RBI policy announcement did result into short term movement or volatility on intraday basis but prices eventually closed that the short term moving average support.
Now how to trade using Trendlines or channels?

Nifty is moving in the overall expanding pattern shown by blue trendline and within that it is moving in red channel. The reason markets are getting nervous at the higher levels is due to the upward sloping blue trendline. Also as this trendline is shifting higher the resistance will keep moving upside.
So, best trading strategy will be to buy when prices move towards the channel support and also RSI near the support zone. This technique will be valid as long as the short term red channel is intact.
So even if you do not use any other method but this basic technique you can trade profitably provided risk reward is favorable and the reason for trading is objective!

Now imagine the power when you combine these basic techniques with Elliott wave and other methods like Bollinger Bands, indicators and much more.

“The Financial waves short term update” is our flagship research report that shows trading strategy and detailed analysis using Elliott wave, cycles and indicators applied on Nifty and stocks. To subscribe visit Pricing Page.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Most Advanced Technical analysis Training on Elliott wave, Neo wave, Gann/Hursts Time Cycles- Identifying trading opportunities with various indicators

Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Hurst’s / Gann Time Cycles are one of the most advanced concepts of technical analysis.
You will agree that markets have been moving fast and capturing the swings is not easy. If you would have used only Time cycles also then June was the month to be bearish and July have been bullish. This is very important information for any trader and I am sure you will agree with me. Imagine the power when this Time cycle is combined with price forecasting technique like Neo wave. I will be sharing across my Option trades that went amazingly well and also the ones that did not work out but how losses were minimized
Trust me trading involves combination of skills across Technical analysis, Risk Management, Money management and Mental strength – Psychology. I will be sharing across my personal experiences involving pitfalls a trader should be aware of and belief in the methods or techniques that helped me to be against the crowd at important turning junctures which was responsible to pay off for all the hard work and efforts.
Many believe that keeping it simple is the key to trading success but only if markets were moving in a strong Bull or Bear trend where buying on dips or selling on rallies is the brilliant strategy. However, when we are witnessing huge swings but hardly any progress in either direction on net basis learning advanced methods is utmost important. It is during such phases I built up my expertise on Elliott wave, Neo wave and later timing the trade using Gann Square of Nine Cycles and Hurst’s Time cycles.
Time is the essence for everything. It is applicable not only to our day to day life but for freely traded markets as well. A good trade setup if not timed properly can still result into a serious loss. There are very few technical analysis studies that focus on Time since most of the techniques are driven by Price alone!
The course is designed to aim at the following aspects of trading:
  1. Best Trade setups to enter the market
  1. How to make the most of the position by timing the exit
  1. Know when not to trade – A key to trading success
  1. Applying multiple techniques along with Elliott wave for high conviction trade setups
  1. Time cycles – A very important element to help reduce the number of probable scenarios to nearly one!
  1. How to keep the profits intact after a winning streak…

Ashish Kyal, CMT will be conducting Most Advanced Technical Analysis Training – Neo wave and Time Cycles in Mumbai on 29th-30th July 2017.
About Trainer:
Ashish carries vast experience of analyzing World Equity, Currency and Commodity markets using techniques like Elliott WavesNeo wave,Time Cycles, and momentum tools like RSI, MACD, Moving averages, customized indicators. He is a frequent speaker on business channels like ET Now, Zee Business, CNBC TV18, Bloomberg TV.
Ashish also speaks at financial seminars like Market Technicians Association (MTA – USA), Association of Technical Market Analysts (ATMA), National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Sydenham Management college. He is on the selection panel of GDPI for premiere B- Schools and invited by Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research to speak on Entrepreneurship. He has also been invited as a guest speaker at National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) for the Post Graduate Certificate Program in Financial Economics.
Training Details:
This training would cover Advanced Technical Analysis Concepts – Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles.Practical application of these advanced tools along with charts on Equity, Commodity, Forex and Global Markets.
Contents:
  1. Overview of Elliott Wave
  1. Neo Wave – Difference between Elliott wave and Neo wave
  1. Methods to plot Neo waves on charts for clear wave identification
  1. Combining this with Bar techniques, Indicators, Trader psychology
  1. Two stage confirmations for capturing key reversals
  1. Newly discovered patterns – Diametric, Extracting Triangle, Neutral Triangle
  1. Cycle Analysis: Time the market with accuracy using Hurst’s Time cycles
  1. Trade setups, Application of the concepts on charts
  1. Momentum Stock selection for Intraday trades with exit strategies
  1. Understanding Gann Square of Nine for timing the turns
  • Members of Equity, Commodity, Currency exchanges
  • Brokers / Traders / Dealers
  • Research analysts in Equity, Commodity and Currency markets
  • Students who aspire to pursue career in Financial Markets
  • Treasury dealers of Banks and Corporate


SCOPE The training is ideal for those who want to analyze and understand Equity / Commodity / Forex markets in detail. Traders or investors who want to learn on how to build their investment portfolios or do trading for living. The course is designed for anyone and everyone keen to learn systematic way of trading using scientific approach. The only pre-requisite is passion for learning objective method of trading.
WHO SHOULD ATTEND?
Where and when is the course? The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.
Dates: 29th-30th July 2017 Training Duration: 16 hours (8 hours per day)
Registration Fee: The charges for the Training are Rs. 23000 + 15% Service tax. Register before 15th June 2017 to avail Early Bird Offer – Discounted price along with access to Free research for limited time, Elliott wave crash course videos before the training itself. Confirm your seat today!
If registered after 15th June 2017 charges would be Rs. 26000 +18% GST
Limited seats, Registration is on first come first basis.
Refer a friend and get 10% discount
Pay online by visiting- Quick Payment
After the course :
  1. One Month of free Nifty Neo wave research report to understand the practical application on realtime basis
  1. One week of free Equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update our flagship product on Equities
  1. Instant interaction on Discussion Forum at www.wavesstrategy.com
  1. All participants will be entitled for 20% Discount on any of our research products after the course for 1 month subscription
  1. Training Certificate on Elliott wave, Neo wave and Time cycles

How to Enroll?
To register for the training using either Credit Card or Netbanking  click the below button
Pay now by visiting- Quick Payment
For any other details Contact US here or call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com

Testimonials    
  • I was the last candidate getting into Mr. Ashish Kyal webinar and I was very lucky to have boarded to me as his classes were how my first teacher taught me a b c d he was clear precise and ensured that even a layman like me understood every minute thing about being technical and about the wave patterns. He covered what could be termed at school a dry subject with so much of passion and created an auto instinct in students like me to be glued to what was an absolute transformation of how we look at charts. In fact I have become a fan of my guru and will be part of his journey here on … Continue your good work. You are very genuine in what you are doing in this world of fake people My name is Subramanian Mahalingam My qualification is I am BCOM, ACA Grad, CWA and Masters in Oracle Financials I am CFO of an Infra company and group with topline of 1000 cr. Subramanian Mahalingam, Telengana
  • The simplification of complex subject of “Elliot Waves” and combination of Elliot Waves with Classical Technical Tools are not only Awesome, but Unique too. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed Mr. Kyal’s Seminar at Sarovar Premier Hotel, Bombay during 13th & 14th October, 2013 because of his Flawless, Plain (Jargon free) and Lucid Language. Best of all I liked his virtue to teach what he really performs in his real professional life.And last, but not least, Mr. Kyal’s Seminar was the Best of All Seminars I’ve ever attended -Kiran Banjara, KB Investment Avenues, Ahmadabad-GJ
  • Myself Sameer. Just want to share my feedback. From last 7 years, I am doing full-time trading in F&O segment (Nifty & Bank Nifty) using my technical study and Elliot wave counting. I attended 2 days Neo Wave seminar on 1st March at Goregaon. The session and teaching by Mr. Ashish Kyal was excellent. The topics covered in session e.g. new Neo wave patterns, new Elliott rules, 2 stage confirmation and Time Cycles were very useful. Today I applied these techniques on Nifty and Bank Nifty (Daily & 60 Min charts) and its working perfectly fine. I am very much satisfied with the course. Just want to say Thank You for sharing such valuable knowledge. I have also subscribed for your daily mail service on Nifty EOD and Elliott view. From last 3 months, I am reading these mails daily. I always verify my own analysis with your mails, before taking any entry in market. The accuracy and success ratio of your mails (analysis) is more than 98%, which is excellent. Thanks again. – Sameer Dharaskar,Mumbai

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

ITC worst fall since 1992? What is next?

ITC is a heavy weightage stock in Nifty and Sensex. This stock has cracked down by more than 14% in the morning of Tuesday, 18th July 2017 i.e today, on back of The Goods and Service tax  (GST) council  raised the cess on cigarettes. This is one of the biggest fall in ITC since 1992!
With this new information prices have immediately adjusted itself to the new value. It is interesting to see how markets adjust the information quickly. This will also lead to change in chart pattern over short term.
However, the fact is that this is not for the first time Government is increasing the tax regime but this is very often with ITC on its cigarettes business. If one checks the past record, then government is under process of hiking excise duty on cigarettes every year. Hence this has become a norm for tobacco industry. 
We believe that such kind of news can result into short term volatility. The interesting thing to note down is that since 2013 there is continuance hike in excise duty on cigarettes but as against to that ITC share price has managed to gain by 39% from 2013 to 2017 i.e. from the high of 253 to the high of 355 made in the year of 2017. Isn’t it interesting?
In the early part of 2017, ITC rallied on back of the hopes that GST will boost the business and now GST is in place but with some tweaks in cess on cigarettes.  Due to the same ITC shares have corrected immediately. Markets are continuously is in process of discounting the future.  Now let us look at the medium to long term technical chart of ITC:
ITC weekly chart:

Technical outlook: In above we can see that prices have been intact in upward moving channel. In the last week of June 2017 and in the first week of July 2017 stock broke above the channel resistance and made high at 355 level. This suggests that up move post breaking the first parallel channel was false breakout and now prices can again start to respect the upward moving channel.  The zone of 255-260 should act as important support from where breakout was witnessed.
The above chart clearly suggests that even when there have been negative implications on ITC stock price due to duty or tax hikes the medium to long term trend resumed on upside after a brief correction. We can expect similar outcome even now. ITC can move lower over short term towards the support zone of 255 – 260 which will provide buying opportunity. Post this the original trend on upside should resume.
Please note the above analysis will hold true as long as the blue channel remains intact. The support as per this channel is near 220 levels on downside which will act as multi-year support level.
Announcement: In the above chart you can see how a simple technique like Channeling and Moving average can provide vital information post the news or any event. Imagine the power when you combine them with other advanced technical analysis methods like Elliott – Neo wave, Time cycles. Register NOW for the Most Advanced Training on Technical analysis Ever, Limited seats left…