Friday, October 13, 2017

Nifty at life time highs, Time cycles worked brilliantly, What is next?





Nifty hits life time highs. In this webinar see how Time cycles and Technical analysis helped to capture the move on upside. Visit https://www.wavesstrategy.com for stock tips, Commodity tips, Currency tips..


Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Nifty: How to combine Time cycles with Neo wave?

Nifty has been moving precisely as expected over past few months. We use advanced technical analysis concepts like Elliott wave, Neo wave and Time cycles.

Look at the below chart of Nifty when it was near the low when we published our bullish outlook and also showed the original Time cycles:

Nifty daily chart on 3rd October: showing Time cycles and Neo wave counts

Nifty daily chart: Happened so far:

Following is the research published on 3rd October 2017 in “The Financial Waves short term update”

We are re-visiting the 55 days Time cycle to see if the same can still be considered. If we consider the original 55 days cycle with the low formed on Demonetization day in November 2016 and stay with that then the low formed on 28th September is just a day after the cycle low. This clearly indicates that the original cycle is still very well intact and we are keeping a very close watch on this to see if the low can be protected over next few days or not. You can see my latest webinar explaining the same here - Nifty target achieved near 9700, Will it form short term low?

We have been prudent to turn bearish exactly at the right time thereby allowing us to capture the entire fall and now it is time to see if we the high of Friday near 9854 is broken which will be first positive indication.

As shown on 60 mins chart, (shown in actual research report) given the deeper retracement on upside in the form of wave d there is another possibility that the ongoing pattern can also complete in 5 legged Extracting triangle from the highs of 10145 instead of forming a 7 legged Diametric pattern. So we might have completed wave d at Friday high of 9854 and have started wave e on downside.

If this is indeed an Extracting triangle pattern than a low can be formed soon and prices might not break below 9687 formed on 28th September. BANG ON!

In short, we are keeping a close watch on price movement over next two days to see which levels are taken out from here on. Break above 9854 will be first sign of positivity which will prove validity of Time cycles.

Happened: After forming a low exactly a day after the cycle low, Nifty reversed on upside and protected the lows mentioned in 3rd October research. The low formed at 9687 was indeed protected and prices moved above 9854 and now touched the highs of 10067 levels in today’s session.
This simply shows how well one can capture the trend by following Time cycles with Neo wave analysis.

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Thursday, October 5, 2017

Nifty: How to form successful intraday trading strategy based on Elliott wave?

Nifty has been precisely moving as per Elliott wave pattern and you can see how to apply technical analysis to form intraday trading strategy.

Nifty showed huge volatility in last few weeks in which prices first moved lower from 10178 to 9688 level and post the same sharp rise towards 9945 level has been witnessed. However during the same time basic as well as advanced Technical methods have continued to help us to form short to medium term trading strategy.

It is thrilling experience to see that important reversal area has worked well even during the volatile period. Below is the glimpse of trading strategies on Nifty that has worked perfectly in last few weeks:   

Nifty 60 mins chart:

(Below is the part of research published in today morning)

Wave analysis:

RBI maintained status quo on key policy rates in lines with expectations but the important thing to note is that markets continued to rally despite of no strong positive outlook. This is the reason that we say that events can result into short term movement that can last for few minutes to few hours but the original trend eventually resumes that we are seeing on upside.

Bank Nifty showed some underperformance and is yet to take out the highs of 24230 level which is important. Volatility was high as expected but move above 24230 will confirm a positive breakout in this sector. We are keeping a close watch on this.

Nifty after making a low near 9850 levels reversed on upside and continued to move higher towards 9838. So the zone of .. is important support as prices have a Gap area below that. So existing long positions can now use .. as stop level and keep trailing it to make most out of the positive trend…”

Based on the Elliott / Neo wave analysis we generated the following trading strategies published in The Financial Waves Trading update.

Trading Strategy of 4th October 2017:  Nifty can trade volatile in today's session due to monetary policy. For today, long positions can be created on move above 9870 with 9830 as stop and target of 9910. BANG ON!

Happened: It is interesting to see that even on RBI Monetary policy day; Nifty moved in lines with our expectation and achieved our mentioned target levels.

Trading Strategy of 27TH September 2017:  For today, short positions can be created on move below 9840 with 9870 as stop and target of 9810 or lower. BANG ON!

Happened: Nifty moved lower precisely as expected.

Trading Strategy of 25th September 2017: For today, short positions can be created on move below 9950 with 10000 as stop and target of 9900 or lower.

Happened: Nifty broke the level of 9950 and quickly moved below 9900 levels.

Trading Strategy of 21st September 2017: Short positions can be created on move below 10110 with day's high as stop and target of 10070.

Happened: BANG ON! Nifty broke below 10110 and quickly moved below the target level as well.

The above trading strategies clearly indicate the power of technical methods which can help to capitalize in short to medium term trading. Get access to The Financial Waves Trading Update which covers Nifty with intraday trading strategy and The Financial Waves Short Term Update which covers Nifty with 3 different stocks on daily basis.

In case you cannot track the market yourself and want to receive trading tips during market hours with complete follow-up, target levels and stoploss you can directly subscribe to our Intraday / Positional advisory services.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Stocks Intraday trading strategy to win CNBC TV18 Bull’s Eye show!

Intraday trading strategy or Stocks Tips that helped me to win CNBC TV18’s Bull’s Eye stock trading show!


Nifty dynamic move from 18th Sep to 22nd Sep: Though the markets saw a fall of almost 160pts on Friday 22nd Sep we ended on the winning side on the CNBC Trade show. How? Let us have look on what were the strategies followed to maintain our consistency to manage positive returns on the amount of Rs. 400000
The most important thing that I personally follow is to understand the direction of major index before stock selection on each day. This helped me to gauge out of 4 stocks to pick daily, how many we need to have on the buy or sell side.
Notional amount of 400,000 was given that has to be spread across 4 different stocks on daily basis.
18th September trades: During the week Nifty had been constantly struggling to cross above the important resistance level of 10135- 10155. We mentioned the importance of these levels even in our daily Equity research reports. Nifty was consolidating in a range between 10050 and 100130. A breakout above 10155 was needed to see a further uptrend. The sectors that we were focusing on were Housing Finance, Auto, Gas Distribution on the Buy side as these were the sectors that were out performing and could have managed to achieve the specified target. Stock tips – Buy DHFL, IGL, TVS Motors, Sell Apollo Hospitals.
19th September trades:  Nifty had a positive closing in previous session and thus we maintained our strategy to keep 3 stocks in buy and one on sell side to hedge the entire portfolio. On second day once again I selected LT Finance which showed outperformance along with PFC and Biocon which were exhibiting short term breakout.  Within the same sectors also there can be some laggards and hence based on the same Repco Home finance was given on short side.
20th September trades: Based on the sideways action at higher levels in Nifty, we try to find out the strong momentum in select stocks. On the basis of the same Bharat Forge, STAR and Tata Chemical were preferred to give on buy side. On sell side LIC Hosing finance was given due to its weak structure.
21st September trades:  Although the market were struggling to maintain the upside trend, on observing the rally given by the Pharmaceuticals sector for 2 consecutive days we decided to focus more on Pharma stocks as they had been gaining momentum. We also included Bharat Finance as one of our picks on the buy side since the stock was outperforming and had made  a Flag pattern on the charts to see a breakout on upside trying to takeout its 52week high. To overcome any kind of disruption in the market trend we again preferred to have one stock on the selling side. Stock tips – Buy Dr. Reddy, Torrent Pharma, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Sell LIC Housing Finance.
22nd September trades:  Stock tips – Buy Ajanta Pharma, Biocon, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Sell Repco Home Finance. Since Pharma as a sector was outperforming we remained bullish and gave a buy call on Pharma stocks while being bearish on Repco Home finance being the underperformer. Even though the markets witnessed a sharp fall, we managed to restrict our losses for that day as our focussed remain on the Pharma space.
Overall, I managed to go long on Pharma on most of the occasions and short the underperformer on each day to hedge the portfolio to some extent that helped me close positive for the entire week when the other contestant closed in red 🙂
The above strategy clearly highlights the fact that knowing the direction of major index is extremely important even when individual stocks have their own technical picture. These stocks lose their identity if the major undercurrent or index tone is strongly trending in one direction.
Evaluating individual stock technical charts are also important but identifying the number of stocks to be on the buy or sell side on each day based on overall market tone was the key to trading success during the week.
For reference anyone wants to read about strategies followed in May 2016 can refer the following link: Rules followed during ET Now game show where I won with substantial margin can be found in this link – Rules followed to win ET Now show by Huge margin
Another Bull’s eye trading strategy followed in September 2016 – Trading strategy to win September 2016
Bull’s eye trading strategy followed in September 2016 – Trading Strategy to win February 2017
The above is just to share across my personal experience during these shows.
Post the break of 10040 on Nifty we have been bearish all the while and the same has been mentioned in our daily equity research report – The Financial Waves short term update